How to Prepare Your Toy Inventory for the Holiday Shopping Season | Wholesale Stock Planning

All figures above are working examples, not toy-industry averages.

Build One SKU Sheet

For each high-value or fast-moving holiday SKU, keep the following information in one place:

• last holiday sales;
• 7-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day sales;
• sellable stock;
• allocated stock;
• confirmed customer orders not yet shipped;
• backorders;
• incoming PO quantity;
• incoming PO status;
• factory or wholesale cost;
• landed cost;
• selling price;
• MOQ;
• case pack;
• supplier lead time;
• customer required delivery date;
• return rate;
• markdown history;
• receiving damage rate.

Be careful with order status. A backorder is often already part of an open customer order, so adding both together can count the same demand twice.

The same applies to inventory. Physical stock is not always sellable stock. If the warehouse contains 500 units but 40 are damaged and 120 are allocated to existing orders, only 340 units remain free for new demand.

Pack size, carton size, age information, and similar details should come from the exact SKU rather than a category average. Piano Potato’s wholesale toy range can be used to identify product lines, while the individual product page should be used for exact pack, size, age, and carton data.

Correct Last Year’s Sales

Building Set A recorded 820 sales last holiday season. During several strong selling days it was out of stock. Sales on comparable in-stock days suggest that around 80 more units could reasonably have sold.

Adjusted Historical Demand = 820 + 80 = 900 units

When stockouts affect the history, use the closest comparison you have:

• compare Saturday with other Saturdays;
• compare similar stores that remained in stock;
• compare another sales channel that still had stock;
• compare category demand during the same dates.

If the product was unavailable on two Saturdays, a monthly average is usually a poor substitute. Busy weekend demand can be very different from weekday demand.

Promotions can distort the history in the opposite direction. If normal sales are 120 units per week but a 40% discount produces 300 units, the 300-unit result should not become the new baseline unless a similar promotion is already planned.

Keep one-time demand separate as well. A single 500-unit wholesale order, a short viral spike, a movie release, a competitor stockout, or a clearance campaign can all make one period look stronger than normal.

Separate Confirmed Demand From Possible Demand

Building Set A already has 220 units in confirmed unfulfilled customer orders. Those 220 units belong in required demand.

A retailer asking for a quote on 500 units is different. The inquiry may support a higher forecast, but until there is a purchase order, it should not be treated like confirmed demand.

Set a Different Stock Rule for Each Product Type

For trend products, add one more label:

• new launch;
• growing;
• mature;
• declining;
• end-of-line.

A collectible may still be selling well today but already be close to the end of its strong demand period. If it has four good selling weeks left and replenishment takes eight weeks, a large new order is hard to justify.

Calculate the Demand Forecast

Building Set A has adjusted historical demand of 900 units. Current sales and customer activity support about 10% growth:

900 × 1.10 = 990 units

For planning, that can be rounded to about 1,000 units.

The extra 150 units in the high case need a clear reason. Do not add 15% or 20% simply because a higher number feels safer.

For a new toy with no sales history, use comparable SKUs. Try to match:

• age range;
• price;
• toy category;
• brand strength;
• package size;
• gift use;
• sales channel;
• launch timing.

A new $29.99 STEM kit for ages 6–9 can be compared with previous $25–$35 STEM kits sold to the same age group. Then adjust for confirmed preorders, brand awareness, planned distribution, and promotion support.

If the whole category is new to your business, use the same sample, supplier, document, cost, and opening-order checks described in Piano Potato’s guide to sourcing educational toys for retail.

Calculate the Purchase Quantity

Building Set A has 220 units in confirmed unfulfilled orders.

Additional forecast demand is:

1,000 − 220 = 780 units

Total required demand is:

220 + 780 = 1,000 units

Available supply consists of 160 sellable units on hand and 180 reliable incoming units:

160 + 180 = 340 units

The business also wants 120 units left after the holiday.

Planned Purchase = 1,000 + 120 − 340 = 780 units

Building Set A comes in cartons of 24:

780 ÷ 24 = 32.5 cartons

Because half a carton cannot be ordered:

33 × 24 = 792 units

The final example PO is therefore 792 units.

The 144-unit MOQ is already satisfied.

If the calculation had produced 650 units instead:

650 ÷ 24 = 27.08 cartons

The practical choices would be 648 units or 672 units, depending on whether the supplier allows the lower quantity and whether another 22 units of stock are acceptable.

Count Only Reliable Incoming Stock

The system shows 240 Building Set A units on open supplier POs, but they are not all at the same stage:

Useful PO status labels are:

• PO placed;
• supplier confirmed;
• production started;
• production complete;
• shipped;
• customs cleared;
• warehouse received;
• released as sellable stock.

If 300 units appear on open POs but only 180 are reliable, counting all 300 makes the stock position look 120 units safer than it really is.

Set the Post-Holiday Stock Target

Building Set A is expected to sell 30 units per week after the holiday. Four weeks of January stock equals:

30 × 4 = 120 units

That is the 120-unit ending-stock target used in the PO calculation.

A holiday-specific item selling only 5 units per week after peak demand would need much less:

5 × 4 = 20 units

The December sales of two products may look similar, but their January stock targets can be completely different.

Calculate the Last Order Date

The retailer needs Building Set A by November 10.

Total:

4 + 3 + 21 + 7 = 35 days

For finished stock, the working order date is about 35 days before November 10.

If another 25 days of production are needed:

35 + 25 = 60 days

The same retailer delivery date now requires a supplier commitment roughly 60 days earlier.

For stock ordered through Piano Potato, use the current shipping information when building the dispatch part of the schedule. Keep supplier dispatch time, carrier transit, and the retailer’s required delivery date as separate fields.

Use Actual Supplier Lead Times

The last five replenishments took:

The average is:

(18 + 21 + 20 + 27 + 22) ÷ 5 = 21.6 days

Using 21 days as a working figure is reasonable for routine planning, but the 27-day shipment shows why a holiday order still needs some extra time.

Quantity performance matters too:

Fill Rate = Units Received ÷ Units Ordered × 100

If the PO is 1,000 units and the supplier ships 920:

920 ÷ 1,000 × 100 = 92%

That leaves an 80-unit shortage even when the shipment arrives on time.

Calculate Safety Stock

Building Set A sells 18 units per day during peak weeks. Supplier history shows that a slow shipment can take about seven days longer than expected.

Safety Stock = 18 × 7 = 126 units

A slower product selling 5 units per day with four days of protection needs much less:

5 × 4 = 20 units

More safety stock makes sense when:

• demand changes sharply from week to week;
• supplier delivery dates vary widely;
• fill rate is poor;
• the SKU is difficult to replace;
• the margin lost from a stockout is high.

Use less when the item is slow, highly seasonal, easy to replace, or expensive to clear after the holiday.

Keep known campaign demand out of safety stock. If an approved promotion is expected to add 300 units, those 300 units belong in the demand forecast.

Calculate the Reorder Point

Peak demand is 18 units per day and lead time is 21 days.

Demand during lead time:

18 × 21 = 378 units

Add the 126-unit safety stock:

378 + 126 = 504 units

The working reorder review point is approximately 504 units.

At 504 units, check the expected arrival date and late-season landed cost before placing another PO. The number tells you when to review the SKU; it does not force a reorder.

Track Weeks of Supply

Start with stock that is still free for new demand:

Free Stock = Sellable Stock − Allocated Stock

If Building Set A has 504 free units and current weekly demand is 126 units:

504 ÷ 126 = 4 weeks of supply

If weekly demand rises to 180 units:

504 ÷ 180 = 2.8 weeks of supply

The physical stock has not changed, but the time it will last has dropped sharply.

Check 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day demand together. A sudden increase may come from ongoing demand, one large customer order, a short promotion, or a temporary competitor stockout. The reason matters before you change the PO.

Measure Forecast Error

Building Set A was forecast at 1,000 units. Actual demand finished at 960 units.

Forecast Error = Actual Demand − Forecast Demand

960 − 1,000 = −40 units

The forecast was 40 units too high.

Percentage difference:

40 ÷ 1,000 × 100 = 4%

One 4% miss is not especially useful by itself. The better check is whether the same direction keeps appearing. If 20 important SKUs are repeatedly overforecast, look at the growth, promotion, and stockout assumptions used across those products.

Calculate the Cash Needed for the PO

The Building Set A PO is 792 units.

Factory cost:

792 × $7.00 = $5,544

Example payment terms:

Freight, duty, inspection, handling, and domestic transport add $2.50 per unit:

792 × $2.50 = $1,980

Total landed inventory cost:

$5,544 + $1,980 = $7,524

If the retailer pays Net 45, the wholesaler may have to fund most or all of the $7,524 before the customer payment arrives. That cash timing needs to be checked before approving the PO.

Recalculate Margin Before a Late Reorder

Normal landed cost:

$9.50 per unit

Example selling price:

$18.50 per unit

Normal gross profit per unit:

$18.50 − $9.50 = $9.00

For 792 units:

792 × $9.00 = $7,128 gross profit

A late air-freight reorder raises landed cost to $12.20.

New gross profit per unit:

$18.50 − $12.20 = $6.30

Profit reduction:

$9.00 − $6.30 = $2.70 per unit

Percentage reduction:

$2.70 ÷ $9.00 × 100 = 30%

The toy may still be selling well, but the late reorder is now producing 30% less gross profit per unit.

Use Staged Orders for Uncertain Trend Toys

For a new collectible with possible demand between 3,000 and 6,000 units, a staged plan could be:

If actual demand stops at 2,200 units, the business avoids taking all 6,000 units.

If demand reaches 5,500 units and later orders can still arrive before peak demand ends, more stock can be released.

This does not work when replenishment takes 90 days and only six weeks of holiday demand remain.

Private-label toys also need time for samples, packaging approval, testing, and production approval. Add those steps before the production lead time when using a private-label toy sourcing process.

Convert Unit Forecasts Into Warehouse Space

Piano Potato’s Amber Dig Kit lists 24 pieces per wholesale carton and approximately 0.042 m³ per carton.

For 2,400 units:

2,400 ÷ 24 = 100 cartons

100 × 0.042 = 4.2 m³ of carton volume

For 4,800 units:

4,800 ÷ 24 = 200 cartons

200 × 0.042 = 8.4 m³ of carton volume

Carton volume is only the starting point. Pallet space, aisles, receiving space, and pick locations still need room, so the warehouse requirement will be higher than 4.2 m³ or 8.4 m³.

Measure Sellable Yield at Receiving

Check arriving stock for:

• crushed retail boxes;
• torn seals;
• wrong barcodes;
• missing components;
• mixed cartons;
• incorrect labels;
• visible damage.

Sellable Yield = Sellable Units Received ÷ Total Units Received × 100

If 1,000 units arrive and 970 can be sold immediately as new:

970 ÷ 1,000 × 100 = 97%

On a 5,000-unit order:

5,000 × 97% = 4,850 sellable units

That leaves a 150-unit difference between what was ordered and what is immediately usable. During peak weeks, that gap can be large enough to affect customer orders.

Put Fast Movers Near the Packing Area

If moving a high-volume SKU saves 30 seconds per pick and the product appears in 2,000 orders:

2,000 × 30 seconds = 60,000 seconds

60,000 ÷ 3,600 = 16.7 labor hours

Use forward-pick locations for the highest-volume products and keep reserve cartons close enough to refill those locations quickly.

Allocate Stock When Orders Exceed Supply

Free stock is 1,000 units:

• Customer A requests 700;
• Customer B requests 500;
• Customer C requests 400.

Total requested:

700 + 500 + 400 = 1,600 units

Available stock covers:

1,000 ÷ 1,600 × 100 = 62.5%

A possible allocation:

The final split should reflect contractual commitments, existing orders, account value, payment reliability, margin, and expected replenishment.

Partial shipment can also help. A 500-unit order could be handled as 250 now, 150 after the next confirmed receipt, and 100 through a substitute SKU if the customer accepts it.

Calculate Promotion Inventory Before Launch

Normal weekly demand:

200 units

Expected increase above normal demand:

+150%

Expected promotional demand:

200 × (1 + 150%) = 500 units per week

For a two-week promotion:

500 × 2 = 1,000 units

If available inventory is 1,200 units:

1,000 ÷ 1,200 × 100 = 83.3%

The promotion could use more than 80% of the stock in two weeks.

The +150% figure should come from previous campaigns on the same SKU or similar products, not from a guess.

If the SKU would normally sell 400 units over those two weeks and the promotion produces 1,000:

1,000 − 400 = 600 additional units

Calculate Demand Transfer to Substitute Toys

Toy A sells out with 400 units of expected demand still remaining.

If 50% of those customers can move to Toy B:

400 × 50% = 200 extra units of Toy B demand

If Toy B originally had 500 free units:

500 − 200 = 300 units left after transferred demand

Use the new 300-unit figure when checking Toy B’s weeks of supply.

Check U.S. Toy Safety Before the PO and Before Shipment

For children’s toys sold in the United States, ASTM F963 is part of the mandatory federal toy-safety framework. CPSC states that ASTM F963-23 applies to toys manufactured after April 20, 2024, with different sections applying according to the toy and its hazards.^[1]

CPSC provides an ASTM F963 requirements chart showing which sections generally apply and which depend on the toy type.^[2]

Before the PO:

• confirm the intended age range;
• confirm the exact SKU and product version;
• identify the rules that apply to that product;
• confirm that required test and certificate records can be supplied.

Before shipment:

• match the test report to the SKU being shipped;
• check the laboratory where CPSC-accepted third-party testing is required;
• check certificates;
• check warnings;
• check tracking information;
• prepare required import certificate data.

Children’s products subject to applicable federal children’s product safety rules generally require certification based on testing by a CPSC-accepted third-party laboratory, subject to applicable CPSC exceptions, exemptions, or testing determinations.^[3]

For an imported children’s product that requires a Children’s Product Certificate, the importer is responsible for issuing the CPC and identifying the product and applicable children’s product safety rules.^[4]

Children’s products also require tracking information on the product and packaging to the extent practicable so production and source information can be identified.^[5]

CPSC eFiling requirements took effect July 8, 2026 for most imported consumer products subject to certification requirements. Products entered from a Foreign Trade Zone for consumption or warehousing have a January 8, 2027 effective date.^[6]

For small-parts requirements, product age grading and the actual part size matter. CPSC provides separate guidance covering small parts and choking-hazard labeling for children’s products.^[7]

Piano Potato’s product safety information describes its general testing and inspection approach. For a wholesale PO, match the records supplied to the exact SKU and production version being purchased rather than relying only on a supplier-level statement.

Keep Batch Records for Recalls

CPSC maintains the official U.S. recall and product-safety-warning database.^[8]

Keep these fields connected:

• supplier;
• SKU;
• purchase order;
• production lot or batch where available;
• warehouse receipt;
• customer shipment.

If one batch is affected by a recall but the warehouse cannot identify which units came from that batch, more inventory may need to be stopped or investigated.

Staff should be able to stop sales, quarantine affected inventory, identify customer shipments where records allow, and follow the official recall instructions.

Calculate Leftover Stock Before December Ends

A seasonal toy has:

• 800 units available;
• two strong selling weeks left;
• 150 units of weekly demand.

Expected remaining sales:

150 × 2 = 300 units

Expected remaining stock:

800 − 300 = 500 units

If post-holiday sales drop to 20 units per week:

500 ÷ 20 = 25 weeks of stock

A 25-week supply on a seasonal toy needs attention before the main selling period ends.

• stop future POs;
• move stock to a stronger channel;
• bundle slow stock with a stronger product;
• use a controlled markdown;
• use wholesale clearance;
• carry the item only if it has year-round demand.

Calculate the Cost of Markdown

Unit cost:

$18

Normal selling price:

$35

Full-price gross profit:

$35 − $18 = $17

Assume a 1,000-unit purchase finishes with this sales mix:

Total gross profit:

$11,900 + $2,200 + $600 = $14,700

If all units had sold at full price:

1,000 × $17 = $17,000

Gross-profit reduction caused by the markdown mix:

$17,000 − $14,700 = $2,300

That $2,300 downside belongs in the buying decision before the original PO is approved.

Use One Daily Inventory Dashboard

During peak weeks, check fast-moving and high-value SKUs daily. The dashboard only needs enough information to choose one action:

• reorder;
• hold;
• stop buying;
• promote;
• transfer;
• markdown.

Use This Holiday Buying Schedule

Products with long manufacturing, private-label, testing, or import cycles may need purchasing decisions earlier than the 90-day window.

Check These Numbers Before Approving the PO

• Adjusted historical demand is calculated.
• Confirmed orders are counted once.
• Quote requests are not treated as confirmed sales.
• Sellable stock excludes damaged and quarantined units.
• Reliable incoming stock is based on current PO status.
• MOQ and carton rounding are included.
• Target post-holiday stock is calculated.
• Actual supplier lead time is reviewed.
• Fill rate is known.
• Safety stock covers only uncertain demand and delay.
• Reorder point is calculated.
• Weeks of supply uses recent sales.
• Normal and urgent landed costs are known.
• Supplier payment dates fit available cash.
• Warehouse carton volume has been calculated.
• Receiving loss is included where it is material.
• Required safety and compliance records match the SKU.
• The final profitable reorder date is known.
• A markdown or exit plan exists for seasonal stock.

Finally

For Building Set A, 1,000 units of expected demand plus 120 units of post-holiday stock, minus 340 units of usable supply, produced a 780-unit requirement. Carton rounding moved the PO to 792 units. At 18 units per day, a 21-day lead time and 126 units of safety stock put the reorder review point at 504 units. Normal landed cost leaves $9.00 gross profit per unit; urgent freight cuts that to $6.30, a 30% drop. Those are the numbers that matter when deciding how much to buy, when to reorder, and when to stop.